Analysis of interannual drought variability via Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENOS) in the state of Acre (AC)

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55761/abclima.v35i20.17936

Keywords:

Climate Index; Dry; Grouping; Quality; Failure.

Abstract

Natural climate phenomena (tornadoes, hurricanes, floods, and droughts) are responsible for socioeconomic losses and the loss of numerous lives in the globalized world, with drought being the phenomenon of greatest magnitude and causing the most damage to the production chain, potentially compromising the water security of a country. Thus, the aim of this study was to analyze the occurrence of drought via the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) on a 12-month scale and its association with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) via the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) in the state of Acre, Brazil. The rainfall data were obtained from the National Water and Basic Sanitation Agency (ANA) for the period from 1980 to 2020. Data quality control indicated that, of the 21 rainfall stations distributed across the state of Acre, 57.14% (12 stations) had failures greater than 14.63% and were discarded, while the remaining 42.86% of the stations showed failure rates between 4.27% and 14.63%. Based on Cluster Analysis (CA), four ideal groups were identified, two homogeneous groups (G1, G2) and two non-homogeneous groups (NA). A cutoff distance of 27.00% for Euclidean distance was used due to the formation of both homogeneous and non-homogeneous groups. Groups G1 and G2 accounted for 11.11% and 33.33% of the rainfall stations, respectively, while the non-homogeneous group (NA) accounted for the largest concentration of stations at 55.60%. The coefficient of cophenetic correlation proved to be satisfactory. Descriptive statistics results indicate that the highest annual averages and standard deviations occurred in groups G2 and NA, while group G1 showed the lowest mean and highest deviation. The temporal distribution of SPI-12 and ONI indices identified drought and ENSO events at the Marechal Thaumaturgo (G1) station, Xapuri (G2), and the municipality of Porto Walter (NA). The interaction matrices (SPI vs. El Niño), (SPI vs. La Niña), and (SPI vs. ENSO) showed low values for the correlation coefficients (r) and determination (R²), as well as low model performance based on Willmott's indices (d) and confidence (IC). The best regression model fit was observed in the interaction between SPI and La Niña at the Marechal Thaumaturgo (G1) station.

 

 

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Author Biographies

Givanildo de de Gois , Federal University of Acre, UFAC, Postgraduate Program in Environmental Sciences.

He has a degree in Meteorology from the Federal University of Alagoas (2003) and a Master's degree in Agricultural Meteorology from the Federal University of Viçosa (2005). PhD in Environmental and Forestry Sciences from the Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro (2017). Postgraduate Program in Environmental Technology, at the Universidade Federal Fluminense School of Metallurgical Industrial Engineering of Volta Redonda. He is currently a PNPD/CAPES Post-Doctoral Fellow in the Postgraduate Program in Geography at the Federal University of Rondônia Foundation-UNIR. Participates in the Applied Geotechnology Group in Agriculture and Forestry (GAAF) of the State of Mato Grosso (UNEMAT): http://pesquisa.unemat.br/gaaf/equipe. He has experience in the area of Geosciences, with an emphasis on Meteorology, working mainly on the following topics: Environment, Statistics, Drought and Desertification.
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Paulo Miguel de Bodas Terassi, Programa de Pós-graduação em Geografia Física, Universidade de São Paulo, SP, Brasil.

Paulo Miguel de Bodas Terassi has a PhD in Physical Geography (Sciences) from the University of São Paulo (2019). He graduated in Geography, with a Bachelor's degree, from the State University of Maringá (2012). He obtained a Master's degree in Geography, area of concentration in Environmental Analysis, from the State University of Maringá (2015). He has a Master's degree in Geography, area of concentration in Geographic Space Production, from the São Paulo State University "Júlio de Mesquita Filho"-Presidente Prudente Campus (2015). He recently completed his Post-Doctoral internship at the Instituto Tecnológico Vale-Desenvolvimento Sustentável (ITV-DS) and developed research with the research group Environmental Geology and Water Resources (GGARH). He has experience in Physical Geography, with an emphasis on Geographic Climatology, Remote Sensing, Pedology and Hydrology.
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Josimar da Silva Freitas, Federal University of Acre, UFCC. Postgraduate Program in Environmental Sciences

Professor in Socio-Environmental Development and higher education in the areas of Public Management, Political Sciences and International Relations. Researcher of the Interdisciplinary Group in Socio-Environmental Research (G-IPÊS/FURB), and the Interdisciplinary Group of Research in Management and Regional Development (GPGDR/UNIR). Committed experience with traditional communities, socio-environmental relations and public policies in Conservation Units (UCs) of Sustainable Use in the Amazon. Strategic Postdoctorate, Postgraduate Program in Environmental Sciences, Universidade do Acre (UFAC), Floresta Campus in Cruzeiro do Sul

Sonaira Souza da Silva, Federal University of Acre, UFCC. Postgraduate Program in Environmental Sciences

Trained in Agricultural Engineering (2008), Mastered in Vegetable Production with an emphasis on family agriculture (2010) by the Federal University of Acre and Doctorate in Tropical Forest Sciences (2017) by the National Institute of Research in the Amazon. Currently she is a professor at the Federal University of Acre Campus Floresta in Cruzeiro do Sul, where she acts as a counselor in the Postgraduate Program in Environmental Sciences and Coordination of the Applied Geoprocessing Laboratory in the Environment (LabGAMA). She carried out research focused on spatial analyzes of land use, burning and forest fires in the Amazon.

Bruno Serafini Sobral, Institute of Land and Cartography of the State of Rio de Janeiro (ITERJ)

Bilingual researcher with a Master's degree in Biosystems Engineering (2017), Postgraduate degree in Occupational Safety Engineering (2012) and degree in Agricultural and Environmental Engineering (2010) from Universidade Federal Fluminense. Member of the NSERC/Rio Tinto Industrial Research Chair team at the Northern Hydrometeorology Group (NHG) and PhD student at the University of Northern British Columbia (UNBC). Drone pilot certified by the Canadian Transport Agency (Transport Canada). He has worked as a researcher since 2010 in the areas of hydrology, hydraulic and hydrological modeling, drought indices, climatology, atmospheric rivers and climate change. In these areas he has works published in national and international journals and regularly works as a reviewer of scientific articles for Brazilian and foreign journals.

Roberta Fernanda da Paz de Souza Paiva, Fluminense Federal University, Postgraduate Program in Environmental Technology – PGTA-UFF

Possessed a degree in Economic Sciences from the Federal University of Juiz de Fora (2002), a master's degree in Applied Economics from the Federal University of Viçosa (2005) and a Master's degree in Economic Development from UNICAMP (2010). Currently she is an associate professor at Universidade Federal Fluminense, professor of the Postgraduate Program in Environmental Technology / UFF and Deputy Chef of the Department of Agricultural Engineering. She has experience in the area of Economics, with an emphasis on the Economy of Natural Resources, focusing mainly on the following topics: Ecological Economy, water resources and environmental assessment.

Welington Kiffer de Freitas, Fluminense Federal University, Postgraduate Program in Environmental Technology – PGTA-UFF. Department of Geochemistry

He has a degree in Forestry Engineering from the Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro (1997), a master's degree (2001) and a doctorate (2012) in Environmental and Forestry Sciences, also from the Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro. He works as a collaborator at the Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro and as an Adjunct Professor at the Federal Fluminense University. Since 2017, he has coordinated the Postgraduate course in Environmental Technology (PGTA)-UFF. He has experience in the area of Forest Resources and Forest Engineering, working mainly on the following topics: ecology, conservation of natural resources, management of Conservation Units and environmental management.

Geraldo de Carvalho Neto, Fluminense Federal University (UFF), Postgraduate Program in Environmental Technology – PGTA

Bachelor in Agronomy from the Federal University of Lavras (UFLA, MG), with academic and technical-scientific experiences in the areas of agroecology (agroforestry systems, permaculture and organic agriculture), plant physiology/ecophysiology, functional dynamics of ecosystems, agroecosystem management, sensing remote, geoprocessing and GIS. He worked with the production and trade of seedlings of native and exotic species, and is currently technical responsible at an agricultural production unit in the state of São Paulo.

Djailson Silva da Costa Júnior, Pesquisador do Instituto Nacional do Semiárido (INSA)

He has a degree in Forestry Engineering (Federal University of Campina Grande - UFCG), with an exchange at the (Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro - UFRRJ); Specialist in Occupational Safety Engineering (Cruzeiro do Sul University - UNICSUL); Master (Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte - UFRN); and PhD (Federal Rural University of Pernambuco - UFRPE), in Forestry Sciences, respectively. Djailson Júnior works in the following areas: Forest Products Technology; Biomass Energy; Forestry and Recovery of Degraded Areas. He is currently a DB level research fellow at the National Semi-Arid Institute (INSA), in the project: Native and adapted species for multiple uses in the semi-arid region for the recovery of desertified areas, forest restoration and adaptation to climate change. With a professional interest in Biomass Energy, Implementation of Forest Stands, and other related Forestry activities.
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José Genivaldo do Vale Moreira, Federal University of Acre, UFCC. Postgraduate Program in Environmental Sciences

graduated with a full degree in Mathematics from the Federal University of Acre (2004). He has a PhD from the Postgraduate Program in Sanitation, Environment and Water Resources at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (2016), in the research line of modeling hydrological processes. He is currently a Professor at the Federal University of Acre, Campus Floresta, in Cruzeiro do Sul-AC. He has experience in the areas of Mathematics, Statistics and Statistical Hydrology.

Eliane de Oliveira, Federal University of Acre – UFAC, Postgraduate Program in Environmental Sciences – PPGCA.

He has a degree in Agronomy (1985/UFRRJ), a master's degree in Soil Sciences: Soil Microbiology area (1992/UFRRJ) and a PhD in Sustainable Development (2006/UnB). She is currently an associate professor at the Federal University of Acre working in the Postgraduate Program in Environmental Sciences (PPGCA-UFAC). She has experience in the area of sustainable rural development and environmental management, with an emphasis on native species, traditional bean cultivars, family farming, agroecology and the use of bio-inputs in agricultural production.

Jefferson Vieira José, Federal University of Acre, UFCC. Postgraduate Program in Environmental Sciences.

He has a Post-Doctorate in Biosystems Engineering from ESALQ-USP (2017) and a Post-Doctorate in Agricultural Engineering from UFMT (2019). PhD in Science with area of expertise in Agricultural Systems Engineering from ESALQ/USP (2014), Master's in Agronomy from UEM (2011) and Degree in Agricultural Engineering from UEM (2008). He is currently Adjunct Professor in the area of Irrigation, Hydrology and Drainage, hydraulics and Rural Constructions of the Agronomy and Forestry Engineering course.

Marcelo Alves Muniz, Federal University of Acre, UFAC, Postgraduate Program in Environmental Sciences.

He holds a degree in Forestry Engineering from the Federal University of Viçosa (1995). PNAP Specialization in Municipal Public Management, from the Federal University of Amazonas (2019). He is currently a public servant, Administrative Technician in Education - TAE with higher education, in the area of Forestry Engineering, at the Federal University of Acre - UFAC. Previously, TAE Assistant in Education at the Federal Institute of Acre - IFAC. He has experience in the area of Administration, with an emphasis on Public Organizations, as well as in supervision of works, in the environmental component of project execution, especially road works.

Juaneza Barroso Falcao, Claretiano University Center

He has a degree in Nutrition from Claretiano Centro Universitario, Av. Blvd. Thaumaturgo, 1180 – Copacabana, 69980-000- Cruzeiro do Sul, AC – Brazil.

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20/11/2024

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de Gois , G. de, Terassi, P. M. de B., Freitas, J. da S., Silva, S. S. da, Sobral, B. S., Paiva, R. F. da P. de S., … Falcao, J. B. (2024). Analysis of interannual drought variability via Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENOS) in the state of Acre (AC). Brazilian Journal of Climatology, 35(20), 574–606. https://doi.org/10.55761/abclima.v35i20.17936

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