Logics of prevention, legibility and intervention: cartographical compositions of “crime” in predictive policing and in international crisis management

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30612/rmufgd.v9i17.10934

Keywords:

Crime governance. Predictive policing. International crisis management.

Abstract

This article contrasts two different logics of prevention that participate in contemporary crime governance: predictive policing and international crisis management. We demonstrate how, in the two cases analyzed here, “crime” is made legible as a problem, enabling different forms of intervention, based on the relocation of the police presence in the case of predictive policing, and on the diffusion of models of good governance in the case of international crisis management. We illustrate how both processes rely on the authoritative construction of risk cartographies to inform the adoption of such modes of intervention in the name of crime management. In these cartographies, the spatial distribution of risk is based, on the one hand, on the authority of statistical knowledge, and, on the other hand, on the presence of crisis experts in the "field". The forms of intervention prescribed in these contexts, in turn, reproduce a managerial reading of crime prevention, which prioritizes interventions focused on the management of crime as a conjunction of risks, relegating to the background structural elements that contribute to its existence and circumscribing, thus, its policy to the management of crises and events

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biographies

Luisa Cruz Lobato, Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio)

Doutoranda em Relações Internacionais pelo Instituto de Relações Internacionais da Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro (IRI PUC-Rio)

Victória Monteiro da Silva Santos, Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio)

Doutoranda em Relações Internacionais pelo Instituto de Relações Internacionais da Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro (IRI PUC-Rio)

References

AGUIRRE, Kathe; BADRAN, Emile; MUGGAH, Robert. Future crime: Assessing twenty first century crime prediction. Rio de Janeiro: Instituto Igarapé, jul. 2019.

AMOORE, Louise. The politics of possibility: Risk and security beyond probability. Durham: Duke University Press, 2013.

ANGWIN, Julia; LARSON, Jeff; MATTU, Surya; KIRCHNER, Laura. Machine Bias: There’s software used across the country to predict future criminals. And it’s biased against blacks. ProPublica, 23 maio 2016.

ARADAU, Claudia.; VAN MUNSTER, Rens. Governing Terrorism Through Risk: Taking Precautions, (un)Knowing the Future. European Journal of International Relations, 13(1), p. 89–115, 2007.

BALOIAN, Nelson; BASSALETTI, Col. Enrique; FERNÁNDEZ, Mario; FIGUEROA, Oscar; FUENTES, Pablo; MANASEVICH, Raúl; ORCHARD, Marcos; PEÑAFIEL, Sergio; PINO, José A.; VERGARA, Mario. [BALOIAN et al.], “Crime Prediction Using Patterns and Context.” Proceedings of the 2017 IEEE 21st International Conference on Computer Supported Cooperative Work in Design (CSCWD), 2017, p.2-9. Disponível em: http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8066662/. Acessado em 05 de julho de 2019.

BATITUCCI, Eduardo Cerqueira. Gerencialismo, estamentalização e busca por legitimidade: O campo policial militar no Brasil. Revista Brasileira de Ciências Sociais, v. 34, 2019.

BEVIR, Mark. Key Concepts in Governance. [s.l.] SAGE Publications, 2009.

BLIESEMANN DE GUEVARA, Berit. On methodology and myths: exploring the International Crisis Group’s organisational culture. Third World Quarterly, v. 35, n. 4, p. 616–633, 2014.

BRAGA, Anthony. A., PAPACHRISTOS, Andrew. V., & HUREAU, David M. The Effects of Hot Spots Policing on Crime: An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. Justice Quarterly, v. 31, n. 4, p. 633–663, 2012.

BUENO DE MESQUITA, Bruce. A new model for predicting policy choices and preliminary tests. Conflict Management and Peace Science, v. 28, n. 1, p. 65–87, 2011.

CALLON, Michel; MUNIESA, Fabian. Peripheral Vision: Economic Markets as Calculative Collective Devices. Organization Studies, 26(8), p. 1229–1250, 2005.

Center for analysis and modelling of security [CEAMOS]. [s.d.]. Disponível em: <http://ceamos.cl/>. Acessado em 30 de junho de 2019

CHADEFAUX, Thomas. Conflict forecasting and its limits. Data Science, v. 1, p. 7-

, 2017.

COMISIÓN MEXICANA DE DEFENSA Y PROMOCIÓN DE LOS DERECHOS HUMANOS [CMDPDH], La situación de la violencia relacionada con las drogas en México del 2006 al 2017: ¿es un conflicto armado no internacional? México: Comisión Mexicana de Defensa y Promoción de los Derechos Humanos, 2019.

DEVIA, Nelson; WEBER, Richard. Generating crime data using agent-based simulation. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, v. 42, p. 26–41, 2013.

DULCE, Mateo; RAMÍREZ-AMAYA, Simón; RIASCOS, Álvaro. Efficient allocation of law enforcement resources using predictive police patrolling. Disponível em: <https://arxiv.org/abs/1811.12880>. Acessado em 30 de novembro de 2018.

FLORES ARIAS, Paulina V. Modelación y predicción de focos de criminalidad basado en modelos probabilísticos. Santiago, Chile: Universidad de Chile, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, 2014.

FREEMAN, Richard. Recursive Politics: Prevention, modernity and social systems. Children & Society, v. 13, p. 232-241, 1999.

GALTUNG, Johan. Peace by peaceful means: peace and conflict, development and civilization. Londres: SAGE Publications, 1996.

GILLING, Daniel. Crime prevention: theory, policy and politics. Londres: Routledge, 1997.

GONZÁLEZ, María de Arteaga; CORREA, Mária Cúellar. Algoritmos y crímenes, Semana, 4 de abril de 2019. Disponível em: <https://www.semana.com/opinion/articulo/prevencion-de-delitos--columnistas-maria-de-arteaga-gonzalez-y-maria-cuellar-correa/608182>. Acessado em 11 de janeiro de 2020.

GUNDHUS, H. O. ‘Catching’ and ‘Targeting’: Risk‐Based Policing, Local Culture and Gendered Practices. Journal of Scandinavian Studies in Criminology & Crime Prevention, v. 6, n. 2, p. 128–128, 2005.

GURR, Ted Robert; LICHBACH, Mark Irving. Forecasting internal conflict: A competitive evaluation of empirical theories. Comparative Political Studies, v. 19, n. 1, p. 3–38, 1986.

HACKING, Ian. The Taming of Chance. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990.

HEGRE, Håvard; METTERNICH, Nils W.; NYGARD, Håvard Mokleiv; WUCHERPFENNIG, Julian. [HEGRE et al.] Introduction: Forecasting in peace research, Journal of Peace Research, p. 1-12, 2017.

HOCHMÜLLER, Markus; MÜLLER, Markus-Michael. Encountering knowledge production: the International Crisis Group and the making of Mexico’s security crisis. Third World Quarterly, v. 35, n. 4, p. 705–722, 2014.

INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMICS & PEACE. Global Terrorism Index 2018: Measuring the impact of terrorism, Sydney, Novembro de 2018. Disponível em: http://visionofhumanity.org/app/uploads/2018/12/Global-Terrorism-Index-2018-1.pdf. Acessado em 24 de Janeiro de 2020.

INTERNATIONAL COMMISSION ON INTERVENTION AND STATE SOVEREIGNTY [ICISS]. The Responsibility to Protect: Report of the International Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty. Ottawa: International Development Research Centre, 2001.

INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP [ICG]. Who we are. Preventing War. Shaping Peace. [s.d. a]. Disponível em: https://www.crisisgroup.org/who-we-are. Acessado em 24 de setembro de 2019.

INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP [ICG]. Who we are. History. [s.d. b]. Disponível em: https://www.crisisgroup.org/who-we-are/history. Acessado em 24 de setembro de 2019.

INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP [ICG]. Our Journeys. [s.d. c]. Disponível em: https://www.crisisgroup.org/how-we-work/our-journeys. Acessado em 20 de janeiro de 2020.

INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP [ICG]. About CrisisWatch. [s.d. d]. Disponível em: https://www.crisisgroup.org/how-we-work/our-journeys. Acessado em 24 de maio de 2020.

INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP [ICG]. The Life and Death of a Mexican Hitman. 2018. Disponível em: https://www.crisisgroup.org/how-we-work/our-journeys. Acessado em 20 de janeiro de 2020.

INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP [ICG]. Watch List 2019 – First Update. 17 de abril de 2019 [2019a]. Disponível em https://www.crisisgroup.org/how-we-work/our-journeys. Acessado em 20 de janeiro de 2020.

INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP [ICG]. Picking Up the Pieces after Mexico’s Criminal Siege. 22 de outubro de 2019 [2019b] Disponível em: https://www.crisisgroup.org/latin-america-caribbean/mexico/picking-pieces-after-mexicos-criminal-siege. Acessado em 20 de janeiro de 2020.

INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP [ICG]. CrisisWatch. Global Overview - April 2020 [2020]. Disponível em: https://www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch. Acessado em 24 de maio de 2020.

JOHNSON, Shane D., GUERETTE, Rob T. & BOWERS, Kate. Crime displacement: what we know, what we don’t know, and what it means for crime reduction. J Exp Criminol v. 10, p. 549–571, 2014.

JONES, Trevor; NEWBURN, Tim. THE TRANSFORMATION OF POLICING? Understanding Current Trends in Policing Systems. The British Journal of Criminology, v. 42, n. 1, p. 129–146, 2002.

JULIAN, Rachel; BLIESEMANN DE GUEVARA, Berit; REDHEAD, Robin. From expert to experiential knowledge: exploring the inclusion of local experiences in understanding violence in conflict, Peacebuilding, v. 7, n. 2, p. 210-225, 2019.

KAUFMANN, Mareile; EGBERT, Simon; LEESE, Matthias. Predictive Policing and the Politics of Patterns. The British Journal of Criminology, v. 59, n. 3, p. 674–692, 2018.

KITCHIN, Rob. Big Data, new epistemologies and paradigm shifts. Big Data & Society, v. 1, n. 1, 2014.

LAB, Steven P. Crime prevention, 7 ed. New Providence: LexisNexis, 2010.

LEACH, Steven. “Preventing Violence: Community-based Approaches to Early Warning and Early Response”, CSS Mediation Resources. Zurique: Center for Security Studies (CSS), 2016.

LEDERACH, John Paul. Building peace: sustainable reconciliation in divided societies. Washington: United States Institute of Peace, 1997.

MAGUIRE, Mike; MCVIE, Susan. 7. Crime data and criminal statistics: a critical reflection. In: MAGUIRE, Mike; MCVIE, Susan (Eds.). The Oxford Handbook of Criminology. [s.l.] Oxford University Press, 2017.

MCALLISTER, James; LABROSSE, Diane (EDS.). What We Talk About When We Talk About Nuclear Weapons. In: H-DIPLO | ISSF FORUM, No. 2. 15 de junho de 2014. Disponível em: <http://issforum.org/ISSF/PDF/ISSF-Forum-2.pdf>. Acesso em: 11 de janeiro de 2020.

MEARSHEIMER, John J.; WALT, Stephen M. Leaving theory behind: Why simplistic hypothesis testing is bad for International Relations. European Journal of International Relations, v. 19, n. 3, p. 427–457, 2013.

MOHLER, George; SHORT, M.; BRANTINGHAM, P.; SCHOENBERG, F.; TITA, George [MOHLER et al.]. Self-Exciting Point Process Modeling of Crime. Journal of the American Statistical Association, v. 106, n. 493, p. 100–108, 2011.

MUGGAH, Robert. Does Predictive Policing Work?The Cipher Brief, 4 dez. 2016. Disponível em: <https://www.thecipherbrief.com/does-predictive-policing-work>. Acessado em 27 de fevereiro de 2018

NYHEIM, David. Preventing violence, war and state collapse: The future of conflict early warning and response. Paris: Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, 2009.

O’MALLEY, Pat; HUTCHINSON, Steven. Converging Corporatization? Police Management, Police Unionism, and the Transfer of Business Principles. Police Practice & Research, v. 8, n. 2, p. 159–174, 2007.

ORFORD, Anne. International authority and the responsibility to protect. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2011.

PAFFENHOLZ, Thania. Unpacking the local turn in peacebuilding: a critical assessment towards an agenda for future research. Third World Quarterly, v. 36, n. 5, p. 857–874, 2015.

RESCHER, Nicholas. On prediction and explanation. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, v. VIII, n. 32, p. 281–290, 1958.

SINGER, Joel David; SMALL, Melvin. The wages of war, 1816-1965: a statistical handbook. Wiley, 1972.

SPRINZ, Detlef F.; WOLINSKY-NAHMIAS, Yael (eds.). Models, numbers, and cases: methods for studying international relations. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2004.

TELEP, Cody W.; WEISBURD, David; WIRE, Sean; FARRINGTON, David [TELEP et al.]. PROTOCOL: Increased Police Patrol Presence Effects on Crime and Disorder. Campbell Systematic Reviews, v. 12, p. 1-35, 2016.

TERPSTRA, Jan; TROMMEL, Willem. Police, managerialization and presentational strategies. Policing: An International Journal of Police Strategies & Management, v. 32, n. 1, p. 128–143, 2009.

WAKEFIELD, Alison; FLEMING, Janny (Eds.) The SAGE Dictionary of Policing, p. 196-198. London: SAGE, 2020.

WHITE, Adam; GILL, Martin. The Transformation of Policing: From Ratios to Rationalities. The British Journal of Criminology, v. 53, n. 1, p. 74–93, 2012.

ZENKO, Micah; FRIEDMAN, Rebecca R. UN Early Warning for Preventing Conflict, International Peacekeeping, v. 18, n. 1, p. 21-37, 2011.

Published

2020-06-29

How to Cite

Lobato, L. C., & Santos, V. M. da S. (2020). Logics of prevention, legibility and intervention: cartographical compositions of “crime” in predictive policing and in international crisis management. Monções: UFGD Journal of International Relations, 9(17), 299–332. https://doi.org/10.30612/rmufgd.v9i17.10934

Issue

Section

Dossier Articles - Crime and International Relations