Trends and climate variability of cold fronts and rainfall in the metropolitan region of Sao Paulo

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55761/abclima.v34i20.17145

Keywords:

Sistemas frontales. Percentil 95. Clima de São Paulo. ERA 20C.

Abstract

Cold fronts play a crucial role in the precipitation regime in southeastern Brazil, especially in the metropolitan region of São Paulo (RMSP). Understanding the trends and variabilities of these systems and the associated rainfall is essential for assessing local climate impacts. This study aims to analyze the characteristics of cold fronts, precipitation, and their extremes, contributing to an improved understanding of climate trends in the region. It also examines the ability of the ERA-20C reanalysis to capture the observed climatology of cold fronts. Between 1960 and 2010, an average of 39.6 cold fronts per year were observed at the meteorological station located in the RMSP. The ERA-20C showed results very close to those obtained from observations. Precipitation extremes were identified using the 95th percentile of daily precipitation (in mm) for each month, considering only days with precipitation above 0 mm. In the period 1960-2010, this criterion resulted in 486 extreme precipitation events, of which 290 may be related to the passage of cold fronts in the RMSP. Trends for time series of precipitation, cold front frequency, and extreme precipitation were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test. Only the time series of accumulated annual precipitation showed a significant linear growth rate.

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Author Biographies

Caroline Santos Segura, University os Sao Paulo

Completed the meteorology course at the Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences (IAG) - University of São Paulo (2022). He has experience in Meteorology, participating in a Scientific Initiation project in the field of climatology in 2021. He developed monitoring activities in the undergraduate disciplines Dynamic Meteorology 1 and Dynamic Meteorology 2 in 2020. He participated in the International Symposium on Scientific Initiation and Tecnológica da USP (SIICUSP) - 29th edition, national stage. She joined the master's program in meteorology (2022) at the University of São Paulo, at the Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences.

Rosmeri Porfírio da Rocha, University os Sao Paulo

Graduated in Meteorology from the University of São Paulo (1988), master's degree in Meteorology from the University of São Paulo (1992) and Ph.D. in Meteorology from the National Institute for Space Research (1999). He is currently a professor at the Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of São Paulo. He has experience in the area of Geosciences, with an emphasis on Climatology and dynamic climatology, working mainly on the following topics: regional climate simulation, low-level jet, climate forecast, climatology, dynamics studies and numerical prediction of cyclogenesis over South America.

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Published

25/01/2024

How to Cite

Santos Segura, C., & Porfírio da Rocha, R. (2024). Trends and climate variability of cold fronts and rainfall in the metropolitan region of Sao Paulo. Brazilian Journal of Climatology, 34(20), 159–179. https://doi.org/10.55761/abclima.v34i20.17145

Issue

Vol. 34 (2024)

Section

Artigos

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