SPATIO-TEMPORAL VARIABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE VENEZUELAN AMAZON
Palabras clave:
Seasonality. Precipitation variability. SACZ. Intertropical Convergence Zone.Resumen
The Amazon region has a fundamental role in the global hydrological balance. Thus, the spatial and temporal precipitation analyses are essential to evaluate the impacts of climate change. However, there is still an information gap in the Venezuelan Amazon. This research aimed to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of twelve years (2000-2011) of precipitation data from ten sites in the Venezuelan Amazon. The spatial and temporal structures of interannual precipitation variability were analyzed. The Mann-Kendall non-parametric test was used to determine if annual precipitation trends at each site can be identified using a time series that includes a seasonal component. The global Moran index was used to evaluate spatial autocorrelation of precipitation between observations based on Era-Interim. When the 10 sites were separated into groups of average annual precipitation, two homogeneous groups of precipitation were distinguished. The monthly precipitation at each site also defined the homogeneous precipitation groups. These results showed that in this region of the Amazon a unimodal pattern of precipitation predominates at the different sites, with a long period of precipitation and a period with less precipitation between December and March. This pattern is explained by the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which is shifted to more southern latitudes during these months, thus modifying the precipitation dynamics in the Amazon. Furthermore, the main consequences in the precipitation pattern in the Amazon are the influence of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone with the occurrence of high precipitation. Assessing the local spatial association by ERA-Interim, it is noted that the clusters of precipitation (Moran index) express the variability as a function of the significance level of the local indexes’ values.
Descargas
Citas
ALVES, L. M.; MARENGO, J. A.; FU, R.; BOMBARDI, R. J. Sensitivity of Amazon Regional Climate to deforestation. American Journal Climate Change, v. 6, p. 75-98, 2017.
ANSELIN, L. Local indicators of spatial association - LISA. Geographical Analysis, Columbus, v.27, n. 2, p. 93-115, 1995.
ARAGÃO, L. E. O. C.; POULTER, B.; BARLOW, J. B.; ANDERSON, L. O.; MALHI, Y.; SAATCHI, S. Environmental Change and the Carbon Balance of Amazonian Forests. Biological Review, v. 89, p. 913-931, 2014.
BETTS, A.K.; DIAS, M.A.F.S. Progress in understanding land-surface atmosphere coupling from LBA research. Journal Advance Model Earth System, v. 2, p. 1–20, 2010.
CASTELLO, L.; MACEDO, M. N. Large-scale degradation of Amazonian freshwater ecosystems. Global Change Biology, v. 22, p. 990-1007, 2016.
CELEBIOGLU, F.; DALLERBA, S. Spatial Disparities across the regions of Turkey: an exploratory spatial data analysis. The Annals of Regional Sciences, v.45, n.2, p.379-400, 2009.
CRAWLEY, M. J. The R Book, second ed. Wiley, London.p. 346–348, 2013.
DAVIDSON, E. A.; de ARAUJO, A. C.; ARTAXO, P. The Amazon basin in transition. Nature, v. 481, p. 321–328, 2012.
DEBORTOLI, N. S.; DUBREUIL, V.; FUNATSU, B.; DELAHAYE, F.; HENKE, DE OLIVEIRA, C.; RODRIGUES, F. S.; HIROO S. C.; FETTER, R. Precipitation patterns in the Southern Amazon: a chronological perspective (1971–2010). Climate Change, v. 132, p. 251-264, 2015.
DE SOUZA, E. B.; KAYANO, M. T.; TOTA, J.; NOBRE, C. A. On the influences of the El Niño, La Niña and Atlantic dipole pattern on the Amazonian precipitation during 1960–1998. Acta Amazonica, v. 30, p. 305–318, 2000.
DINNO, A. “dunn.test” package: Dunn's Test of Multiple Comparisons Using Rank Sums. http://CRAN.R-project. org/package= dunn.test. RStudio package version 1.0.14. 2017.
ESPINOZA, J.C.; RONCHAIL J.; GUYOT, J.L.; JUNQUAS, C.; DRAPEAU, G.; MARTINEZ, J.M.; SANTINI, W.; VAUCHEL, P.; LAVADO, W.; ORDOÑEZ, J.; ESPINOZA, R. From drought to flooding: understanding the abrupt 2010–2011 hydrological annual cycle in the Amazon River and tributaries. Environmental Research Letter, v. 7, 024008, 2012.
ESPINOZA, J. C.; RONCHAIL, J.; GUYOT, J. L.; COCHONNEAU, G.; NAZIANO, F.; LAVADO, W.; DE OLIVEIRA, E.; POMBOSA, R.; VAUCHEL, P. Spatio-temporal precipitation variability in the Amazon basin countries (Brasil, Peru, Bolivia, Colombia, and Ecuador). International Journal Climatology, v. 29, p. 1574–1594, 2009.
ESRI. ArcGIS Spatial Analyst. Disponível em:< https://www.esri.com/wwwesricom/Home/software/arcgis/extensions/spatialanalyst/key-features/surface> 2020.
FISCH, G.; MARENGO, J. A.; NOBRE, C. A. uma revisão geral sobre o clima da Amazônia. Acta Amazônica, v. 28, p. 101–126, 1998.
FONSECA, P.; VEIGA, J. A.; CORREIA, F. W.; CHAN, C.; LYRA, A. An analysis of precipitation extremes in the Northern South America and their behaviors for future climate based on A1B scenario. Revista Brasileira de Climatologia, v.20, p. 117-134, 2017.
GARREAUD, R.; ACEITUNO, P. Interannual precipitation variability over the South American Altiplano. Journal Climate, v. 14, p. 2779–2789, 2001.
GILLE, F.S.S.; MOTA, M.A.S. Importância das Condições Termodinâmicas nos Eventos Extremos de Precipitação na Cidade de Belém e Região Metropolitana. Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, v. 29, n. esp., p. 73-82, 2014.
GLOOR, M. R. J. W.; BRIENEN, D.; GALBRAITH, T. R. Intensification of the Amazon hydrological cycle over the last two decades. Geophysical Research Letter, v. 40, p. 1729–1733, 2013.
GRIMM, A. M. Interannual climate variability in South America: impacts on seasonal precipitation, extreme events and possible effects of climate change. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, v. 25, p. 537–554, 2011.
HAGHTALAB, N.; MOORE, N.; HEERSPINK, B.P. Evaluating spatial patterns in precipitation trends across the Amazon basin driven by land cover and global scale forcings. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, v. 140, p. 411–427, 2020.
HUBER, O. Conservation of the Venezuelan Guayana. En: STEYERMARK J.A., BERRY P.E. and Holst B.K. Volumen 1. Missouri Botanical Garden, St Louis, Timber Press, Pórtland, pp 193–218, 1995
JAHFER, S.; VINAYACHANDRAN, P. N.; NANJUNDIAH, R. S. Long-term impact of Amazon river runoff on northern hemispheric climate. Scientific Report, v. 7, 10989, 2017.
JOLLIFFE, I. Principal Component Analysis. Encyclopedia of Statistics in Behavioral Science. John Wiley and Sons, p. 503, 2005.
LAWRENCE, D.; VANDECAR, K. Effects of tropical deforestation on climate and agriculture. Nature Climate Change, V. 5, p. 27–36. 2015.
LI, W. H.; FU, R.; JUAREZ, R. I. N.; FERNANDES, K. Causes of recent changes of precipitation variabilities and implications to the future climate in the Amazon region. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, v. 363, p. 1767–1772, 2008.
LIEBMANN, B.; MARENGO, J. A. Interannual variability of the rainy season and precipitation in the Brazilian Amazonia. Journal of Climate, v. 14, p. 4308–4318, 2001.
LIMA, L. S.; COE, M. T.; SOARES FILHO, B. S. Feedbacks between deforestation, climate, and hydrology in the southwestern amazon: implications for the provision of ecosystem services. Landscape Ecology, v. 29, p. 261–274, 2014.
LIN, Y.H.; LO, M.H.; CHOU, C. Potential negative effects of groundwater dynamics on dry season convection in the Amazon River basin. Climate Dynamic, 46:1001–1013, 2016.
MAEDA, E. E.; MA, X.; WAGNER, F. H.; KIM, H.; OKI, T.; EAMUS, D.; HUETE, A. Evapotranspiration seasonality across the Amazon Basin. Earth System Dynamic, v. 8, p. 439–454. 2017.
MARENGO, J. A.; ESPINOZA, J. C. Extreme Seasonal Droughts and Floods in Amazonia: Causes, Trends and Impacts. International Journal Climatology, v. 36, p. 1033–1050, 2015.
MARENGO, J.A.; ESPINOZA, J.C. Review article. Extreme seasonal droughts and floods in Amazonia: causes, trends and impacts. International Journal of Climatology, V. 36, p. 1033–1050, 2016.
MARENGO, J. A. Interdecadal variability and trends of precipitation across the Amazon basin. Theoretical Applied Climatology, v. 78, p. 79–96, 2004.
MARENGO, J. A.; LIEBMANN, B.; GRIMM, A. M.; MISRA, V.; DIAS, P. L. Recent developments on the South American monsoon system. International Journal Climatology, v. 32, p.1–21, 2012.
MARENGO, J. A.; TOMASELLA, J.; SOARES, W.; ALVES, L. M.; NOBRE, C. A. Extreme climatic events in the Amazon basin: climatological and hydrological context of previous floods. Theoretical Applied Climatology, v. 85, p. 1–13, 2010.
MARTORANO, L.; VITORINO, M. I.; CAXIAS, S. B. P.; CABRAL DE MORAES, J. R.; LISBOA, L. S.; DOFF, S. E.; REICHARD, T. K. Climate conditions in the eastern amazon: Precipitation variability in Belem and indicative of soil water deficit. African Journal Agriculture Research, v. 12, p. 1801–1810, 2017.
MORAES, J.R.S.C.; ROLIM, G.S.; MARTORANO, L.G.; APARECIDO, L.E.O.; BISPO, R.C.; VALERIANO, T.T.B. Performance of the ECMWF in air temperature and precipitation estimates in the Brazilian Amazon. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, v. 141, p. 803–816, 2020.
OLIVERO, J. F.; ACEVEDO, P.; LOBO, J. M.; F. A, J. E.; FARFÁN, M. A.; ROMERO, D. Using indigenous knowledge to link hyper-temporal land cover mapping with land use in the Venezuelan Amazon: “The Forest Pulse”. Revista de Biología Tropical, v. 64, p. 1661–1682, 2016.
PANISSET, J. S.; LIBONATI, R.; GOUVEIA, C. M. P.; MACHADO-SILVA, F.; FRANÇA, D. A.; FRANÇA, J. R. A.; PERES, L.F. Contrasting patterns of the extreme drought episodes of 2005, 2010 and 2015 in the Amazon Basin. International Journal of Climatology, v. 38, p. 1096-1104, 2018.
POHLERT T. 2020. Package ‘trend’: Non-Parametric Trend Tests and Change-Point Detection. https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/trend/index.html
QUADRO, M. F.; SILVA, D. M. A.; HERDIES, D. L.; GONÇALVES, L. G. Análise climatológica da precipitação e do transporte de umidade na região da zcas através da nova geração de reanálises. Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, v. 27, p. 152–162, 2012.
R DEVELOPMENT CORE TEAM. R version 3.6.0. In. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. 2019.
RONCHAIL, J.; COCHONNEAU, G.; MOLINIER, M.; GUYOT, J. L.; GORETTI, M. C. A.; GUIMARÃES, V.; DE OLIVEIRA, E. Precipitation variability in the Amazon Basin and SSTs in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic oceans. International Journal Climatology, v. 22, p. 1663–1686, 2002.
RONCHAIL, J.; GALLAIRE, R. ENSO and precipitation along the Zongo valley (Bolivia) from the Altiplano to the Amazon basin. International Journal Climatology, v. 26, p. 1223–1236, 2006.
SATYAMURTY, P.; DE CASTRO, A.A.; TOTA, J. Precipitation trends in the Brazilian Amazon Basin in the past eight decades. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, v. 99, p. 139–148, 2010.
SCHERRER S.C.; BEGERT, M.; CROCI-MASPOLI, M.; APPENZELLER, C. Long series of Swiss seasonal precipitation: regionalization, trends and influence of large-scale flow. International Journal of Climatology, v. 29, p. 1574–1594, 2016.
SEGURA, H.; ESPINOZA, J.C.; JUNQUAS, C. Recent changes in the precipitation-driving processes over the southern tropical Andes/western Amazon. Climatology Dynamic, v. 54, p. 2613–2631, 2020.
SILVA FERREIRA D. B.; DE SOUZA, E. D.; DE MORAES, B. C.; MEIRA FILHO, L. G. Spatial and Temporal Variability of Precipitation in Eastern Amazon during the Rainy Season. The Scientific World Journal, vol. 2015, ID 209783, 2015.
SOUSA, A. M.; ROCHA, E. J.; VITORINO, M. I.; SOUZA, P. J.; BOTELHO, M. N. Variabilidade Espaço-Temporal da Precipitação na Amazônia Durante Eventos ENOS. Revista Brasileira de Geografía Física, v. 08, p. 13–024, 2015.
VAN DER ENT, R. J.; SAVENIJE, H. H.; SCHAEFLI, B.; STEELE-DUNNE, S.C. Origin and fate of atmospheric moisture over continents. Water Resources Research, p. 46, W09525, 2010.
VILLA, P.M.; MARTINS, S.V.; DE OLIVEIRA NETO, S.N.; RODRIGUES, A.C. Anthropogenic and biophysical predictors of deforestation in the Amazon: towards integrating REDD+ activities. Bosque, v.38, p. 433-446, 2017.
VILLA, P.M.; MARTINS, S.V.; DE OLIVEIRA NETO, S.N.; RODRIGUES, A.C.; HERNÁNDEZ, E.P.; KIM, D.G. Policy forum: shifting cultivation and agroforestry in the Amazon: premises for REDD+. Forest Policy and Economic, v. 118, 102217, 2020.
VILLA, P.M.; MARTINS, S.V.; DE OLIVEIRA NETO, S.N.; RODRIGUES, A.C.; MARTORANO, L.; DELGADO, L.; CANCIO, N.M.; AND GASTAUERG, M. Intensification of shifting cultivation reduces forest resilience in the northern Amazon. Forest Ecology Management, v. 430, 312-320, 2018
YENILMEZ, F.; KESKIN, F.; AKSOY, A. Water quality trend analysis in Eymir Lake Ankara. Physical Chemical Earth, v.36, p. 135–140, 2011.
YUE, S.; PILON, P.; PHINNEY, B.; CAVADIAS, G. The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series. Hydrological Processes, v. 16, p. 1807–1829, 2002.
YUE, S.; WANG, C. Y. The Mann-Kendall test modified by effective sample size to detect trend in serially correlated hydrological series. Water Resources Management, v. 18, p. 201–218, 2004.
ZEMP, D. C.; SCHLEUSSNER, C. F.; BARBOSA, H. M. J.; HIROTA, M.; MONTADE, V.; SAMPAIO, G.; STAAL, A.; WANG-ERLANDSSON, L.; RAMMIG, A. Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks. Nature communication, v. 8, 14681, 2017.
ZHANG, K.; DE ALMEIDA C. A. D.; GALBRAITH, D. R. The Fate of Amazonian Ecosystems over the Coming Century Arising from Changes in Climate, Atmospheric CO2, and Land Use. Global Change Biology, v.21, p.2569–2587, 2015.
ZILLI, M.T.; CARVALHO, L.M.V.; LIEBMANN B.; SILVA DIAS, M.A. A comprehensive analysis of trends in extreme precipitation over southeastern coast of Brazil. International Journal of Climatology, v. 37, p. 2269-2279, 2017.
Descargas
Publicado
Cómo citar
Número
Sección
Licencia
A aprovação dos artigos implica a aceitação imediata e sem ônus de que a Revista Brasileira de Climatologia terá exclusividade na primeira publicação do artigo. Os autores continuarão, não obstante, a deter os direitos autorais. Os autores autorizam também que seus artigos sejam disponibilizados em todos os indexadores aos quais a revista está vinculada.
Os autores mantém seus direitos de publicação sem restrições
A Comissão Editorial não se responsabiliza pelos conceitos ou afirmações expressos nos trabalhos publicados, que são de inteira responsabilidade dos autores.
A Revista Brasileira de Climatologia oferece acesso livre imediato ao seu conteúdo, seguindo o entendimento de que disponibilizar gratuitamente o conhecimento científico ao público proporciona maior democratização do conhecimento e tende a produzir maior impacto dos artigos publicados. Os artigos publicados na revista são disponibilizados segundo a Licença Creative Commons CC-BY-NC 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). Segundo essa licença é permitido acessar, distribuir e reutilizar os artigos para fins não comerciais desde que citados os autores e a fonte. Ao submeter artigos à Revista Brasileira de Climatologia, os autores concordam em tornar seus textos legalmente disponíveis segundo essa licença
