Efectos del clima sobre la incumplimiento bancario
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55761/abclima.v30i18.14645Resumen
Los países en desarrollo son más vulnerables a las consecuencias del cambio climático. Se ha señalado que el acceso al crédito es fundamental para invertir en estrategias de adaptación y construir economías resilientes, pero aún no se comprende bien el comportamiento de los préstamos bancarios en respuesta a las crisis climáticas. La demanda de crédito puede aumentar en épocas de eventos climáticos extremos, pero las tasas de morosidad de los préstamos también pueden aumentar. Brasil ya ha experimentado una variabilidad climática inusual en las últimas décadas, con severas sequías en la región noreste, la zona semiárida más poblada del mundo. El Banco del Noreste (BNB), banco público que se ha utilizado para implementar políticas de desarrollo local, ha prestado más de 20 mil millones de dólares desde la Constitución de 1988 con fondos destinados al desarrollo regional. Este estudio examina el impacto de los choques climáticos en las operaciones crediticias del BNB y las tasas de morosidad durante el período 2002-2013, cuando ocurrieron varios eventos climáticos. Se utilizó el método de regresión econométrica com datos de panel de efectos fijos, que indican que las desviaciones de las temperaturas y la precipitación de su media anual aumentan considerablemente las tasas de incumplimiento. Uno de los factores que incide en la morosidad bancaria puede ser la reducción de la producción agrícola, ya que las tasas de incumplimiento bancario son más altas en este sector, que sufre con la disminución de ingresos de los productores afectados por las variaciones climáticas.
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