Dynamics of cold events in the Pantanal region: a study using reanalysis data from 1981 to 2023

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55761/abclima.v37i21.19967

Keywords:

Thermal Anomalies, Atmospheric Circulation, ERA5

Abstract

A cold spell (locally known as friagem) is a climatic phenomenon characterized by the intrusion of polar air masses into Brazil's tropical regions, significantly impacting the Pantanal. This study examined the occurrence and variability of cold spells in the region from 1981 to 2023, utilizing ERA5 reanalysis data obtained through Google Engine. Cold spells were identified based on thermal anomalies, specifically considering periods of at least three consecutive days with temperatures falling below the climatological 10th percentile. The results indicate that cold spells predominantly occur between May and September, with greater intensity in June and July. During these events, the maximum temperature drops sharply in the initial days, while the minimum temperature continues to cool persistently. A progressive reduction in precipitation associated with cold spells has been observed over the last four decades, suggesting changes in regional atmospheric circulation. In addition to their impact on climate, cold spells affect biodiversity, agriculture, and human health, potentially increasing mortality rates from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. This study underscores the necessity for continuous monitoring and enhancement of meteorological forecasts, which contribute to strategies aimed at mitigating environmental and socio-economic impacts in the Pantanal.

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Author Biographies

Raquel de Cássia Ramos, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Geografia Física da Universidade de São Paulo (USP)

She holds a degree in Environmental Technology from Universidade Presidente Antônio Carlos (UNIPAC, 2007) and a dual degree in Geography (licentiate and bachelor) from Universidade Federal de São João del-Rei (UFSJ, 2013/2017). Additionally, she earned a master's degree in Geography from the Federal University of São João del-Rei (UFSJ, 2018). Currently, she is a PhD student in the Postgraduate Programme in Physical Geography at the University of São Paulo (USP). Since 2013, she has worked as a primary school teacher, officially assuming her position in 2016 after passing a public examination. She has expertise in Geography and Geosciences, with a focus on remote sensing, geoprocessing, climatology, environmental analysis, and flood-prone areas.

Gabriel Pereira, Departamento de Geografia da Universidade Federal de São João Del-Rei (UFSJ)

He holds a degree in Geography from the State University of Santa Catarina (UDESC, 2004), a Master's degree in Remote Sensing from the National Institute for Space Research (INPE, 2008), a PhD in Physical Geography from the University of São Paulo (USP, 2012), a PhD in Remote Sensing from the National Institute for Space Research (INPE, 2013), and a postdoctoral fellowship at the Goddard Space Flight Center of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (GSFC/NASA, 2017). He is currently a professor in the Department of Geosciences (DEGEO) at the Federal University of São João del-Rei (UFSJ), where he teaches climatology, remote sensing, and geoprocessing. Additionally, he serves as an associate researcher in the Atmospheric Modelling and Interfaces Group (GMAI) at the Centre for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC/INPE) and is a permanent faculty member in the Postgraduate Programs in Geography at UFSJ (PPGeog/UFSJ) and in Physical Geography at USP (PPGF/USP). He has extensive experience in Geosciences, with a focus on Climatology and Remote Sensing, primarily working on topics such as climate modeling, estimating greenhouse gas emissions, radiative energy from fire, geoprocessing, and environmental analysis. Since 2023, he has also been a father.

Emerson Galvani, Departamento de Geografia da Universidade de São Paulo (USP)

Emerson Galvani completed his PhD in Agronomy (Energy in Agriculture) at the Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho in Botucatu in 2001. He earned his Master's degree in Agrometeorology from ESALQ/USP in 1995. Currently, he serves as a Professor at the University of São Paulo. Galvani has published 135 articles in specialized journals and 251 papers in conference proceedings. Additionally, he has authored 55 book chapters and edited 4 books. He is currently coordinating 4 research projects. His work focuses on Geography, with an emphasis on Physical Geography, Climatology, and Microclimatology. Throughout his professional career, he has collaborated with 72 co-authors on scientific articles. In his Lattes curriculum, the most frequently used terms to describe his scientific and technological contributions include: microclimate, energy balance, climatic attributes, and microclimates of specific environments. He is a CNPq research and productivity fellow (1D).

Francielle da Silva Cardozo, Programa de Pós-Graduação de Geografia da Universidade Federal de São João del-Rei (UFSJ)

She holds a technical degree in Environmental Studies from the Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Santa Catarina (IFSC/SC, 2004). He earned a bachelor's degree in Geography from the State University of Santa Catarina (UDESC, 2005). She obtained a master's degree in Geography from the Federal University of Santa Catarina (UFSC, 2009) and a PhD in Remote Sensing from the National Institute for Space Research (INPE, 2014). He completed a postdoctoral fellowship in Geography at the Federal University of São João del-Rei (UFSJ), where he focused on validating numerical air quality models. He has extensive experience in Geography and Geosciences, specializing in remote sensing, geoprocessing, risk assessment, environmental analysis, land use and occupation, deforestation, agricultural areas, modeling, and fire dynamics. She served as a visiting researcher at the Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA), where he identified and analyzed the injection of smoke plumes from fires. He is currently a Collaborating Professor in the Postgraduate Program in Geography at the Federal University of São João del-Rei (UFSJ) and is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Institute of Biological Sciences of the Federal University of Minas Gerais (ICB/UFMG). His current project focuses on evaluating the impacts of the Fundão Dam failure in Mariana, MG, on the spatiotemporal dynamics of biogeochemical processes and aquatic biota in the Doce River, MG.

Paula Resende Santos, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Geografia Física da Universidade de São Paulo (USP)

Possui graduação em Geografia pela Universidade Federal de São João Del-Rei (UFSJ, 2015) e mestrado em Sensoriamento Remoto pelo Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE, 2018). Atualmente, é doutoranda no Programa de Pós-Graduação em Geografia Física da Universidade de São Paulo (USP) e atua como professora no Instituto Federal do Pará. Tem ampla experiência na área de Geociências, com foco em Geografia Física, atuando principalmente em temas como sensoriamento remoto, estimativa de emissões de gases de efeito estufa provenientes da queima de biomassa e energia radiativa produzida pelo fogo.

Shayene Bernardo Dutra, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Geografia Física da Universidade de São Paulo (USP)

PhD student in Physical Geography at the University of São Paulo (USP) and hold both a master's and bachelor's degree in Geography from the Federal University of São João del-Rei (UFSJ). Additionally, I have a degree from UFSJ and have specialized in Applied Human and Social Sciences at the Federal University of Piauí (UFPI) and in Special and Inclusive Education at FAVENI. My research focuses on Geography and Geosciences, with an emphasis on remote sensing, geoprocessing, environmental analysis, land use and occupation, deforestation, and wildfires. I am a researcher at LABSERClima/UFSJ and have experience in projects related to erosion, forest fires, solid waste management, and tourism in protected areas. Furthermore, I have completed training courses in inclusive education.

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Published

03/07/2025

How to Cite

Ramos, R. de C., Pereira, G., Galvani, E., Cardozo, F. da S., Santos, P. R., & Dutra, S. B. (2025). Dynamics of cold events in the Pantanal region: a study using reanalysis data from 1981 to 2023. Brazilian Journal of Climatology, 37(21), 138–162. https://doi.org/10.55761/abclima.v37i21.19967

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Vol. 37 (2025)

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