Validation of precipitation and air temperature from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) for Londrina - PR

Abstract

In the southern region of Brazil, Londrina is the fourth most populous municipality and the second most populous in Paraná. The municipality lacks extensive and consistent meteorological data series, which makes it more challenging to properly understand local climatic characteristics. This gap has direct implications for studies related to climate variability and change, different applications for the agricultural sector, as well as weather and climate monitoring and forecasting. In view of this, this study aims to validate precipitation and air temperature from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC/PSL/NOAA) for Londrina by comparing them with data from the conventional weather station of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), in order to assess whether the estimated data can be used in place of the observed data. The results show that precipitation from INMET is underestimated by the CPC, especially in the rainiest months (summer), while in the less rainy months (winter) the accuracy of the data is higher. With regard to air temperature, INMET data is overestimated by the CPC, showing greater accuracy in the warmer months. Overall, CPC data can be used to correct INMET data gaps in Londrina, especially for the air temperature variable. However, attention should be paid to its application for analyzing extreme events, since rainfall data tends to underestimate extreme values in the summer.