WILL CLIMATE CHANGE BE HARMFUL FOR SMALL TROPICAL ISLANDS? THE CASE OF FERNANDO DE NORONHA ARCHIPELAGO, BRAZIL
Keywords:
Climate emergency. Greenhouse gas emissions. Small islands. Climate risk.Abstract
The Fernando de Noronha archipelago is one of the key areas for biodiversity conservation on the Brazilian coast and one of Brazil's most sought-after destinations for ecotourism. We assessed the potential Archipelago's risk from climate changes based on climate-related hazards, calculated through the percentage of changes between future and present values for each climatic and bioclimatic variable from the WorldClim database. Two radioactive force models were considered for the forecasts, considering an optimistic scenario and a business-as-usual scenario of greenhouse gas emissions. Our data indicated that minimum and maximum environmental temperatures are likely to increase homogeneously throughout the year, while a possible intensification of the dry season is likely to occur with a decrease in precipitation. In addition, our results indicate a decrease in isothermality, representing a decrease in the ratio between diurnal temperature variation and interannual temperature variation. Our results indicate that this important Archipelago is becoming potentially at risk of climatic and bioclimatic variation due to anthropogenic climate changes. We argue that the planning of local environmental policies should include adaptation and mitigation measures of negative effects of climate change, and conservation actions should be carried out under an integrative approach basis, including environmental conservation and remediation, sustainable use of resources, and regional and national governance.
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