CLIMATE DYNAMICS OF SOUTHERN REGION OF MOZAMBIQUE: STATISTICS AND FOURIER ANALYSIS

Authors

Keywords:

Climate variability and trend. Rainy season. Fourier analysis. Southern Mozambique.

Abstract

In this study, we evaluate the climate behavior of the southern region of Mozambique in the face of the evidences of climate change at global level. Time series of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures related to 1960-2018 were used. The data was provided by the Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INAM) – Mozambique, collected from fifteen gauge stations. We have applied Statistics and Fourier analysis to assess the periodicity, long-term variability and trend of the time series. Besides, the rainy season behavior was also assessed. The results of the analyzes are related to the current global climate observations and projections contained in the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR5), the latest IPCC full report by the moment of this study. Overall, the signal of climate change in Mozambique is visible. Precipitation did not show a significant trend in its variability. However, a slight decrease is noticeable in the provinces of Gaza and Inhambane. The rainy season showed a tendency to a late start and an early end, resulting in a decrease of the season length, which has dropped on average about 16 days. Extreme temperatures, on the other hand, showed a clear upward trend, with the increase being more pronounced in the minimum temperature than the maximum temperature. The maximum temperature increased by about 0.7 °C and the minimum temperature increased by about 1.5 °C during the analyzed period. These results are in line with the observations and projections contained in the IPCC-AR5 regarding the Austral Africa which include Mozambique.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

AMEKUDZI, L. K. et al. Variabilities in Rainfall Onset, Cessation and Length of Rainy Season for the Various Agro-Ecological Zones of Ghana. Climate, v. 3, p. 416-434, 2015. DOI: 10.3390/cli3020416.

BAGNOULS, F.; GAUSSEN, H. Les climats biologiques et leurs classifications. Annales de Géographie, v. 66, n. 355, p. 193–220, 1957. Available from: https://www.persee.fr/issue/geo_0003-4010_1957_num_66_355. Accessed in: jan. 2020.

BELDA, M. et al. Climate classification revisited: from Köppen to Trewartha. Climate Research, v. 59, p. 1–13, 2014. DOI: 10.3354/cr01204.

BRACEWELL, R. The Fourier Transform & Its Applications. 3rd ed., London: McGraw-Hill, 624 p, 1999. ISBN: 0073039381.

CHRISTY, J. R.; NORRIS, W. B.; MCNIDER, R. T. Surface temperature variations in east Africa and possible causes. Journal of Climate, v. 22, n. 12, p. 3342–3356, 2009. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2726.1.

GHADERPOUR, E. Least-Squares Wavelet Analysis And Its Applications In Geodesy And Geophysics. 2018. Thesis (Doctor of Philosophy) - York University, Toronto, 2018. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327515717. Accessed in: may 2021.

GRZESICAA, D.; WIĊCEKA, P. Advanced Forecasting Methods Based on Spectral Analysis. Procedia Engineering, v. 161, p. 253–258, 2016. DOI: 10.1016/j.proeng.2016.08.546.

HARTMANN, D. L. et al. Observations: Atmosphere and surface. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, cap. 2, p. 159-254, 2013a. ISBN: 9781107057999. Available from: www.ipcc.ch. Accessed in: jan. 2020.

HARTMANN, D. L. et al. Observations: Atmosphere and Surface Supplementary Material. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, cap. 2SM, 2013b. Available from: www.ipcc.ch. Accessed in: jan. 2020.

HEUMANN, C.; SCHOMAKER, M.; SHALABH. Introduction to Statistics and Data Analysis, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing, 456p, 2016. ISBN 978-3-319-46162-5. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-46162-5.

IPCC. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Houghton, J.T., Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C.A. Johnson (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and NY, 881p, 2001. Available from : https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/WGI_TAR_full_report.pdf. Accessed in: jan. 2021.

IPCC. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, [edited by: M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds.]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976p, 2007. ISBN: 978 0521 88010-7. Available from: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ar4-wg2-intro.pdf. Accessed in: feb. 2020.

IPCC. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 p, 2014. DOI: 10.1017/CBO9781107415324.008.

KALICINSKY, C. et al. Determination of time-varying periodicities in unequally spaced time series of OH* temperatures using a moving Lomb–Scargle periodogram and a fast calculation of the false alarm probabilities. Atmos. Meas. Tech., v. 13, n. 2, p. 467–477, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-467-2020.

MACHADO, M. A. M. et al. Duração da estação chuvosa em função das datas de início do período chuvoso para o estado de Minas Gerais. Revista Brasileira de Agrometeorologia, Santa Maria, v. 4, n. 2, p. 73–79, 1996.

MARENGO, J. A. et al. Onset and end of the rainy season in the Brazilian Amazon Basin. Journal of Climate, v. 14, n. 5, p. 833–852, 2001. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<0833:OAEOTR>2.0.CO;2.

MAVUME, A. F. Tropical cyclones in the South-West Indian Ocean: intensity changes, oceanic interaction and impacts. 2008. Thesis (Doctor of Philosophy) - University of Cape Town, Cape Town, 2008. Available from: https://open.uct.ac.za/handle/11427/11314. accessed in: feb. 2020.

MCSWEENEY, C. et al. The UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Improving the Accessibility of Observed and Projected Climate Information for Studies of Climate Change in Developing Countries. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, v. 91, n. 2, p. 157-166, 2010. DOI: 10.1175/2009BAMS2826.1.

NDOMBA, P. M. Development of Rainfall Curves for Crops Planting Dates: A Case Study of Pangani River Basin in Tanzania. Nile Basin Water Science & Engineering Journal. v. 3, n. 1, p. 13–27, 2010. Available from: https://www.nilebasin-journal.com/images/files/uploads/277_26095920.pdf. Accessed in: may 2020.

QUEIROZ, A. et al. Avaliação da vulnerabilidade dos parâmetros climáticos e projeção de cenários climáticos. Maputo - Moçambique, 39p, 2007.

REASON, C.; JAGADHEESHA, D. A model investigation of recent ENSO impacts over Southern Africa. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, v. 89, p. 181-205, 2005. DOI: 10.1007/s00703-005-0128-9.

SANSIGOLO, C. A. Variabilidade interanual da estação chuvosa em São Paulo: Climanálise, v. 4, n. 9, p. 40–43, 1989.

VAREJÃO-SILVA, M. A. Meteorologia e Climatologia. 2 ed., Recife, 2006. Available from: https://icat.ufal.br/laboratorio/clima/data/uploads/pdf/METEOROLOGIA_E_CLIMATOLOGIA_VD2_Mar_2006.pdf. Accessed in: mar. 2020.

Downloads

Published

21/09/2021

How to Cite

Ussalu, J. L. M., & Bassrei, A. (2021). CLIMATE DYNAMICS OF SOUTHERN REGION OF MOZAMBIQUE: STATISTICS AND FOURIER ANALYSIS. Brazilian Journal of Climatology, 29, 132–156. Retrieved from https://ojs.ufgd.edu.br/rbclima/article/view/15172

Issue

Vol. 29 (2021)

Section

Artigos

License

A aprovação dos artigos implica a aceitação imediata e sem ônus de que a Revista Brasileira de Climatologia terá exclusividade na primeira publicação do artigo. Os autores continuarão, não obstante, a deter os direitos autorais. Os autores autorizam também que seus artigos sejam disponibilizados em todos os indexadores aos quais a revista está vinculada.

Os autores mantém seus direitos de publicação sem restrições

A Comissão Editorial não se responsabiliza pelos conceitos ou afirmações expressos nos trabalhos publicados, que são de inteira responsabilidade dos autores.

A Revista Brasileira de Climatologia oferece acesso livre imediato ao seu conteúdo, seguindo o entendimento de que disponibilizar gratuitamente o conhecimento científico ao público proporciona maior democratização do conhecimento e tende a produzir maior impacto dos artigos publicados. Os artigos publicados na revista são disponibilizados segundo a Licença Creative Commons CC-BY-NC 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). Segundo essa licença é permitido acessar, distribuir e reutilizar os artigos para fins não comerciais desde que citados os autores e a fonte. Ao submeter artigos à Revista Brasileira de Climatologia, os autores concordam em tornar seus textos legalmente disponíveis segundo essa licença