Classification of the cyclone types over the South Atlantic Ocean in projections with RegCM4 and GCMs

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55761/abclima.v30i18.14603

Keywords:

Transição tropical. Ciclones tropicais. Ciclones extratropicais. Mudanças climáticas.

Abstract

This study aims to classify the types of cyclones in the South Atlantic Ocean in three projections of the Regional Climate Model (RegCM4), as well as of the global models (GCMs) that provide the boundary conditions for the regional, and to identify systems that transition to tropical (TT). The climatic scenario used is RCP8.5. Classification of cyclone types uses three algorithms: the first to identify and track cyclones in the South Atlantic Ocean based on relative vorticity at 925 hPa; the second to provide thermal characteristics of cyclones through the Cyclone Phase Space methodology and the third to separate cyclones based on their thermal characteristics. Considering the period 2020-2050 (2051-2080), the GCMs and RegCM4 ensembles project a slight reduction (increase) in the frequency of tropical cyclones when compared to the present climate (1979-2005). For extratropical cyclones, there is a negative trend in their frequency. One of the initial hypotheses of this study was that in a warming scenario, there would be an increase in the number of TT, however the results obtained do not indicate a change in their frequency since in present and future climates the number of transitions is ~ 2.8 systems per decade in both ensemble.

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Author Biographies

Vitor Hugo Marrafon, Instituto de Recursos Naturais, Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)

Bacharel em Ciências Atmosféricas pela Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI), Mestre em Meio Ambientes e Recursos Hídricos na mesma instituição. Prestador de servições para empresa Climatempo - a stormgeo company, atuando na equipe de modelagem atmosférica. Experiência com o modelo RegCM4, WRF e linguagens de programação/frameworks como: Fortran, Python, GRADs, CDO, wgrib e Shell Script. Atua principalmente nas áreas de eventos extremos, mudanças climáticas, ciclones e modelagem.

Michelle Simões Reboita, Instituto de Recursos Naturais, Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI)

Graduada em Geografia (Bacharelado, 2001) e mestre em Engenharia Oceânica (2004) pela Fundação Universidade Federal do Rio Grande - FURG; doutora em Meteorologia pela Universidade de São Paulo - USP (2008). Realizou dois pós-doutorados em Meteorologia pela USP, sendo um sanduíche com a Universidade de Vigo (Espanha). Foi associada júnior do Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics da Itália entre 2013 e 2016 e de 2018 ao presente é associada regular. É docente do Instituto de Recursos Naturais (IRN) da Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI), orientadora do programa de mestrado em Meio Ambiente e Recursos Hídricos da UNIFEI, coordenadora do grupo de Pesquisa e Extensão em Políticas Socioamientais (GPEPSA-UNIFEI-CNPQ) e pesquisadora do IRN, do Grupo de Estudos Climáticos (GrEC) do Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas da USP e do Núcleo de Apoio à Pesquisa em Mudanças Climáticas (INCLINE) da USP. Atua em diferentes linhas de pesquisa e extensão com grupos nacionais e internacionais (por exemplo, Espanha, Itália, Suécia e Paquistão).Tem experiência na coordenação de projetos financiados pelos principais órgãos de fomento do país bem como em projetos de pesquisa e extensão tecnológica financiados pelo setor elétrico. Foi coordenadora do curso de Ciências Atmosféricas da UNIFEI de 2015 a 2017 e coordenadora adjunta de 2018 a março de 2020; membro da Câmara de Assessoramento de Recursos Naturais, Ciências e Tecnologias Ambientais (CRA) da Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais (FAPEMIG) de 2016 a 2018. Desde 2017 é editora assistente da Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, desde setembro de 2020 é consultora regional do World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) e desde outubro de 2021 integra o grupo de monção das américas do WCRP. Tem experiência na área de Geociências, com ênfase em Meteorologia Sinótica, Climatologia e Modelagem Climática.

Rosmeri Porfírio da Rocha, Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo (USP)

Possui graduação em Meteorologia pela Universidade de São Paulo (1988), mestrado em Meteorologia pela Universidade de São Paulo (1992) e doutorado em Meteorologia pelo Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (1999). Atualmente é professor do Depto. de Ciências Atmosféricas da Universidade de São Paulo. Tem experiência na área de Geociências, com ênfase em Climatologia e climatologia dinâmica, atuando principalmente nos seguintes temas: simulação climática regional, jato de baixos níveis, previsão climática, climatologia, estudos da diâmica e previsão numérica de ciclogêneses sobre a América do Sul.

Eduardo Marcos de Jesus, Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo (USP)

Possui graduação em Meteorologia pela Universidade de São Paulo (2012) e mestrado em Meteorologia pela Universidade de São Paulo (2014), atuando principalmente nos seguintes temas: frente fria, climatologia, simulações , regcm4 e banco de dados.

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Published

16/02/2022

How to Cite

Marrafon, V. H., Reboita, M. S., da Rocha, R. P., & de Jesus, E. M. (2022). Classification of the cyclone types over the South Atlantic Ocean in projections with RegCM4 and GCMs. Brazilian Journal of Climatology, 30(18), 1–25. https://doi.org/10.55761/abclima.v30i18.14603

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Artigos