Effects of climate on bank default

Autores

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55761/abclima.v30i18.14645

Resumo

Developing countries are more vulnerable to the consequences of climate change. The access to credit has been highlighted as crucial to the investment in adaptation strategies and to build resilient economies, but bank lending behavior in response to climatic shocks is still not well understood. The demand for credit is expected to increase in periods of extreme climate events, but loan delinquency rates would likely go up as well. In recent decades, Brazil has already experienced unusual climate variability with severe droughts in the Northeastern region, the most populous semiarid area in the world. The Bank of the Northeast (BNB), a public bank that has been used to implement local development policies, has lent over US$ 20 billion since the earmarking of funds for regional development in the Constitution of 1988. This study examines the impact of climatic shocks on the BNB’s credit operations and delinquency rates when several climatic events occurred over the period of 2002-2013. The econometric regressions method was used with fixed-effects panel data and its estimates indicate that deviations of temperature and precipitation from their annual mean increased default rates considerably.  One of the factors that affects bank defaults may be the reduction in agricultural production, since default rates are higher in this sector, which suffers from the income reduction of producers whom are affected by these climate variations.

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Biografia do Autor

Guilherme Resende Oliveira, Instituto Mauro Borges de Estatísticas e Estudos Socioeconômicos, Governo de Goiás

Doutor (2016) em Economia pela Universidade de Brasília (UnB), onde fez o mestrado (2011) e a graduação (2008), também em Economia. É professor do Mestrado em Desenvolvimento Regional no Centro Universitário Alves Faria (UniAlfa). Atualmente, Diretor-Executivo e pesquisador efetivo do Instituto Mauro Borges de Estatísticas e Estudos Socioeconômicos, vinculado ao Governo do Estado de Goiás. Foi Pesquisador Visitante do IPEA (Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada); gerente de Inovação da FAPEG (Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Goiás); gerente de Inteligência Territorial da Emater; professor da UnB (Universidade de Brasília), UAB (Universidade Aberta do Brasil), ENAP (Escola Nacional de Administração Pública) e Escola de Governo Henrique Santillo (Governo do Estado de Goiás). Pesquisa temas como avaliação de políticas públicas, desenvolvimento regional, economia agrícola e inovação.

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Publicado

18-02-2022

Como Citar

Oliveira, G. R. . (2022). Effects of climate on bank default . Revista Brasileira De Climatologia, 30(18), 402–423. https://doi.org/10.55761/abclima.v30i18.14645

Edição

v. 30 (2022)

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